Will F1 at Silverstone be 2017 take 2?

Leading up to Silverstone 2017, Lewis Hamilton trailed then Ferrari driver Sebastian Vettel by 20 points.

Nearly an entire win. Was the title slipping away?

After the chequered flag on race day, the answer was an emphatic no.

Late race punctures for both Ferraris, Vettel’s being particularly untimely, dropped the German down to 7th place at the finish.

It cost the championship leader 6 points, as he fell from 4th place. Meanwhile, a stunning home victory lifted Hamilton to within a single point of the top of the table.

The question is, will lightning strike twice?

Why not?

Silverstone has been very kind to the British driver, especially in the V6 era. Since 2014, he’s won it every year, apart from 2018, adding to the victory he secured in 2008.

Could he add to that record with an 8th win on Sunday?

Given he starts from pole for F1’s first ever sprint round, he’s in the best place. Team mate backup is 3rd, and with Bottas desperately trying to cling to his seat, things could get interesting.

What could happen for a semi repeat

Heading into this year’s event, Max Verstappen has a 32 point lead. To cut that down to virtually nothing, one of these events would have to play out:

Rivals tangle

Forgetting 2017 for a moment, 2018 saw Ferrari’s 2nd man hit the lead Mercedes. Maybe 2021 will see a sprint problem between Mercedes #2 and Red bull’s lead driver…

If that happened, Verstappen would be at the back of the field for the main race, while Hamilton — assuming he wins the sprint from pole — takes 3 points and sets himself up for another 25. With a fastest lap to add, the British driver can bag 29 points.

If Verstappen then fails to score on Sunday, his title lead would be down to 3 points.

A Honda failure

Honda have been pretty reliable this year with their upgraded engine, and this will be tested again.

Mercedes have come on strong in Britain, with the upgrades and temperatures suiting it, which will force Red Bull to run at their maximum.

Could it be too much?

A sprint problem could mean another back of the grid situation for the Dutchman, which would force more engine use in the race proper, and be another concern for future rounds.

If this happened, the same points permutations exist, with a best situation for Hamilton seeing him cut a large 32 point gap to just 3 points.

Verstappen could still score heavily, by coming through the field in Sunday’s race, to avoid such a heavy point loss.

Tyre problems

Tyre failures — not performance issues — caused the biggest damage to Ferrari at Silverstone in 2017.

Raikkonen dropped from 2nd to 3rd, while Vettel fell even further.

With drivers wanting the best grid positions this Sunday, some will take risks. Those at the front might play it safe, while cars further back have bigger incentive to make a charge.

Get it wrong, and the debris might be more than a nuisance.

Pick up a puncture and the sprint session will be ruined. Even worse, it would mean lining up near the back on Sunday.

Could Red Bull’s number 1 be in for a shock?

The other side of the coin

Hamilton needs to win both events — while Verstappen preferably doesn’t score in either — to make the best of this situation.

That would mean game on for the title, with 2017 take 2 — at least at Silverstone — complete.

Of course, these same problems could happen the other way.

If Hamilton has issues in either sprint or race, while Verstappen has a great couple of days, the title would start drifting away from the Mercedes man.

A less extreme view

With Friday’s sprint race qualifying out the way, it looks like Hamilton and Mercedes hold a clear upper hand.

Getting it right this Saturday and Sunday might see the title gap reduce to around 20 points, if the weekend happens without major incident for Mercedes’ and Red Bull’s lead drivers.

That’s because the usual turn of events would see the inevitable podium combination of two Mercedes and one Red Bull.

And if that happens, it makes the summer run of races extra important for the standings’ top 2 men. They’ll both need perfect weekends, to enhance the chances they get their hands on the big prize in 2021.