Opinion — Why Lewis Hamilton’s 7th title will be a Schu in
You might think that’s over the top. He’ll have to work for it. His opponents will be snapping at his heels. No driver, no matter how good, can just turn up, even though we know he’s one of the best right now. So even if the car is a step ahead of the rivals again, he’ll need to race it. Right?
Of course. As to who will come out on top though, don’t bet on anyone other than Mercedes and Hamilton. Expect him to steadily gap the field over the season.
On the eve of the 2020 season, I take a look at the three main teams on the grid, a look at Hamilton’s own experiences, and why championship number 7 is coming into view.
Season background
With hybrid engine regulations in place since 2014, and car design rules largely based in 2017, there’s anticipation that the upcoming season of F1 could be very close between the three leading teams.
While this may look the case on the surface, last year saw Mercedes maintain a performance advantage through to the end of the season, and they’ll have worked on their weaknesses during the break, while driver Lewis Hamilton has his own advantages over his opponents.
A look at the teams
Here are the 3 main contenders who will look to go for the title.
Ferrari
The red team have told the media they won’t be on the leaders’ pace when the first race comes around. They’ve undergone an engine re-design over the winter, costing valuable performance on the straights, while the car design carried over from last year builds on an arguably flawed concept. They’ve done their best to add downforce to what they have, but with their opponents doing the same, while making engine steps as Ferrari regress, expect a difficult year for the scarlet cars.
Mercedes
The dominant force at the first and last races of 2019. Their supremacy was challenged when their car faltered, which was usually, and somewhat unusually, mainly down to the engine side. Problems at altitude, problems with overheating, both addressed by the team over the winter. The further engine problems encountered in testing will also help them understand any deficiencies before the curtain raiser in Melbourne. The car itself has had the usual under skin updates, so expect a seriously fast and reliable car for the upcoming season. And they’re the only team with DAS.
Red Bull
Listening to testing, there’s a good reason to think that the Milton Keynes based team have improved everywhere and will be Mercedes’ biggest threat. The Red Bull’s will be faster on the straights thanks to Honda development, quicker in the corners owing to aerodynamic advances, better all round for this year’s title challenge. The biggest issue they face is Mercedes, and they won’t have been standing still during the off season.
A look at the driver
Hamilton’s prior 13 seasons in F1 have given him invaluable experience.
Underperforming cars
This is hard to put against Lewis Hamilton, as his entry to the sport was into one of the quickest cars, while he’s been in the pace setting Mercedes since 2014.
It was his third year when he had his first real experience with a poor car. Up until the mid point of that year — 2009 — the McLaren he drove was either woeful or mid pack. A raft of updates were added to the car, and from Hungary onwards, Hamilton came back to challenge again, securing another couple of victories.
2010–2012 saw swings in outright pace from his McLaren car, from pace setter to mediocre, although the car was never dreadful.
2013 was his switch to Mercedes, and despite a win at Hungary, while a puncture saw one slip away at Silverstone, the car was never a contender against the like of Ferrari, and especially Red Bull. The above times gave him the necessary experience to take the bad days as a challenge to overcome, while 2020 will see him once again in a top car, and ready to win from round one.
Pressure for the title
Having 6 world titles will lessen the burden of going for the top prize again. He’s won it before a number of times, he’s come close a number of times. Hamilton knows what it’s like to win it by a margin, to lose it by a whisker, and win it by a similarly small amount.
If Bottas did rise to the challenge it will will be his first attempt. He would have all the pressure which he hasn’t had to have at this level before. If Ferrari and Red Bull do produce title contenders, Leclerc and Verstappen would also be affected the same way. Alexander Albon is surely not ready, while Vettel has fallen apart under pressure too many times to count, in individual races, let alone a title, and his days at the top are pretty much over.
Team mates
Hamilton’s first F1 year was arguably his most intense with a team mate, going up against reigning double world champion Fernando Alonso. Whatever happened behind the scenes, Hamilton came out on top, keeping his position at McLaren while the Spaniard returned to his former team.
From 2010–2012 he partnered Jenson Button, and that was a useful experience. Hamilton gained info on tyre management, as well as keeping a cool head and operating a clean weekend from his fellow countryman.
2013–2016 were quite close between himself and Nico Rosberg. That forced him to work harder than before, necessitating a balance between qualifying and race performances, as Rosberg could be mighty over a single lap, despite not always being a match for the Briton on Sundays. The mind games too, and being in the same team meant Hamilton had to work closer to the source, a problem he overcame.
The pressure has gone down a couple of notches after being paired with Bottas, and if he does step up, Hamilton has been there before, while Verstappen and Leclerc have to deal with their own problems.
Clear number 1 and 2
Mercedes won’t say it, but Hamilton and Bottas are a number 1 & 2 driver pairing. Okay, Toto Wolff did make that wingman admission post Hockenheim 2018, but that was swept aside, all with the minimum of fuss from Valtteri Bottas. It’s true they’re free to race, but Hamilton’s performance advantage over his team mate bags him preferential treatment over the course of a season, especially important in a title challenge.
While Max Verstappen should be largely ahead of his Red Bull team mate, don’t rule out problems from the other side of the garage. Alexander Albon is both quick and puts in worthy overtakes, both which can keep him in contention over a weekend, and could put him into collision course with the other driver.
Ferrari have their own issues. Vettel gets the big money, while Leclerc’s new deal has him on significantly less, despite outperforming the German last year. This will likely make Vettel’s place at Ferrari untenable beyond the current year, while he still fights for number one status on track, causing problems within the team again. Adding to this, expect team orders to be issued in a clumsy fashion once more.
Enemies on the track
Hamilton doesn’t have many enemies on the track. All the others want to beat him, sure, but to actually cause him problems, not so much. Perhaps Verstappen is his greatest threat in wheel to wheel situations, but drivers willing to go out their way to make things difficult for him? Other than the Dutchman, perhaps Romain Grosjean. Although Grojean would make life difficult for most. That’s just the way he is. But he’ll be at least a lap down.
When you look at Verstappen, his enemies are plentiful — Leclerc, Vettel, the returning Ocon, Bottas. Maybe even Ricciardo. He hasn’t done himself any favours with his prior attitude and overly aggressive moves.
Leclerc himself has Vettel and Verstappen to deal with, as well as the Mercedes of Bottas.
Vettel meanwhile makes his own enemies, and likes to clash with anyone on the track. He has a special love for teammates. Hamilton is largely in the clear.
Conclusion
Although winter testing paints an inconclusive picture, as always, expect the big three teams to be fighting at, or near the front, from the start. While Mercedes carry advantages over from last year, and their team is operationally one of the best, Hamilton’s race ability and experience will give him the extra he needs to claim a record equalling seventh driver’s title.
