F1 2021 — bold predictions and outlook for forthcoming year
A new F1 season is here, the final one before the big changes next year.
For this campaign, tweaks to the existing rules have been made, with a reduction in downforce at the rear of each car, while a standard, more sturdy, set of tyres will be issued to each team for every race weekend.
The first event kicks off in Bahrain today, March 26th, with practice underway in a short time. The season is currently scheduled across 23 rounds and is set to end in Abu Dhabi on 12th December.
Below I make my predictions of how the season will unfold and guesses of final points tallies for teams and driver.
Season story
Despite initial problems with alterations to the car design this season, a slightly off colour Mercedes — in testing — will come through with its ever present speed and reliability to claim a record extending 8th title in a row.
Red Bull Honda have made significant progress over the course of the winter, but the enormous gap between the Silver Arrows from last season, until when development was switched off, will be too much for even the significantly improved efforts from the Milton Keynes based team.
Team and driver assessment *skip to bottom of article for final points table prediction
Mercedes
The black Silver Arrows face a hurdle. Their return to absolute domination has been issued a challenge. A reduction in downforce at the rear of the car, DAS being banned, a change to tyre rules.
They will still come out victorious. The class leading engine, with enormous power output, fantastic drivability, as well as added race endurance and reliability will mean they will stay at the top.
The difficulties with the rule tweaks for this season will be overcome by the time spent developing the new car, which will see more celebrations for them come the season’s final quarter.
Team final standing prediction
# 1–691 points — Another year, another championship.
Sir Lewis Hamilton
A joint record 7 titles and another honorary one bestowed over the close season, Hamilton wants to put himself clear on top of the title list with another one this year.
Will he do it?
In my opinion, yes.
Despite the cars appearing off the pace in testing, Mercedes are well known for carrying more fuel than their competitors — and other gamesmanship — which makes them seem slower. The balance problems they suffered could take a little time to sort, but if any team can do it, count on the most successful team in F1 history to turn things around.
Adding the ever reliable Mercedes power — only one mechanical retirement across the last four seasons — and a slick team operating at the highest level, there is little to get in the way for another title. Perhaps on raw pace alone they won’t be the fastest, but Mercedes and Hamilton have proved they don’t always need to be to get the job done. Regular high scoring positions while quicker rivals fall to mechanical retirements and falter in races will bag another title.
Driver final standing prediction
# 1–393 points
Valtteri Bottas
The gap between Mercedes teammates will be interesting.
Bottas will have perhaps improved things over the winter again, but he’s coming close to his ceiling. He has got better under the instruction of the formidable Silver Arrows machine, those annual micro improvements since he joined the squad in 2017 inching him closer and closer to Hamilton every year.
Last year, his race pace in comparison to his superior teammate was encouraging, but again, he still fell by the wayside when things didn’t go his way, or when conditions weren’t optimum. Portugal was a crushing representation of this, as was the dire Turkish Grand Prix, which he’ll have to put behind him.
If the car is genuinely harder to handle, expect a larger gap between himself and Britain’s #1. That will leave him in serious danger of getting the axe, instead of his usual contract extension.
Staying then depends on his teammate’s actions.
Will Hamilton decide to finish his F1 driver the end of the year? Or if he stays, expect Bottas to be replaced by the younger and more exciting George Russell (a no brainer). If Hamilton does leave, Bottas can be kept as the wise head for the regulation changes in ’22, while his young teammate goes on a title charge.
Driver final standing prediction
# 3–298 points
Predicted qualifying gap for teammates across the year
0.100 advantage to Hamilton
An initially harder to handle car with more rear instability than Mercedes is accustomed to will see a distinct gap between teammates this year. Improvements through the season will diminish this, but the damage done at the start of the year will show in this stat after the season is done.
Red Bull
Red Bull come out the blocks with an even more refined Honda power unit, in what will be the Japanese giant’s last season in the sport (again). The boost of power will come at a price, with reliability again being hard to manage over the season when pushed by Mercedes.
Fixes to wind tunnel correlation mean the team has had its best winter testing in a very long time, and easily its strongest of the V6 turbo era. The car could push for a number of poles this season.
Team final standing prediction
# 2–527 points — Strong pace won’t match Mercedes’ speed and reliability across a long season.
Max Verstappen
The still young Max Verstappen enters the season with a quite confidence. He’s arguably the quickest on the grid these days in outright pace, while his ever growing experience, and a quicker car this time round, mean he should be able to mount a strong challenge.
Will he turn into the newest title winner this year? No, not this time around. Give him another year under new regulations for that to happen. This year, despite potent pace across most venues, Mercedes’ better reliability and vast experience of being at the top will be a final summit too hard to climb.
The improved Honda performance and a better balanced car will mean a challenge from the off. The problems with this will be the reliability. Despite the bulletproof appearance in testing, expect mechanical woes to creep in when pushed by the team in black, once the racing gets underway.
One thing that will bring the Dutchman more into contention will be a new teammate more able to pressure their rivals. Don’t expect Perez to be anywhere near on pace, but a more consistent hand in races will push the Red Bulls up the final order more often. This will transfer into harder contested races, boosting Verstappen in the process.
Driver final standing prediction
# 2–329 points
Sergio Perez
Starting off on a negative tone, this will be the end of Perez’s top line career. This doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll lose his seat come season’s close, but his aspirations to be top in this most demanding sport will suffer the biggest blow to date.
Being teamed with one of the best in the sport will show how he stands in the outright order. Expect him to sit some way behind his teammate in outright pace, closer than Albon and Gasly, both who languished between 4–5 tenths behind, but Perez’s reduced deficit will be aided somewhat by an easier handling ride.
He can still show well in races, and this is what Red Bull are counting on. Albon was rough around the edges, and Gasly didn’t handle the task properly, but Sergio Perez is both experienced and a known quantity. Red Bull’s new driver is seen as one who generally keeps out of trouble, looks after his tyres, is tough but fair on track, and can manage adversity. In racing terms, the team signed him for race craft, not his outright speed.
Where Perez has historically shined is his race craft. His mental strength in tough conditions and fending off promising rivals. This isn’t just in hard races, but in his overall career to date. After a poor solo year at McLaren in 2013, he’s seen off the speedy and experienced Nico Hulkenberg, then successfully countered the rapid rising star of Esteban Ocon.
Driver final standing prediction
# 4–198 points
Predicted qualifying gap for teammates across the year
0.350 advantage to Verstappen
Getting used to his new environment, Perez will find out just what he’s up against. Once he’s accustomed to living with a deficit, assuming he does, Red Bull’s new #2 will reduce the time between them, but struggle to get within 3 tenths, because that’s the talent gap.
McLaren
A move to the more reliable and more powerful Mercedes engine was the most talked about thing for the team in its preparation for this season. On the driver side, one dependable pair of hands is replaced by another; out goes Sainz, in comes Ricciardo.
The team has gone well in testing. The car seems to have addressed some of its weaknesses from 2020, while the diffuser concept has intrigued the paddock with its design. Expect the team’s two quick drivers to hit the ground running from the first race.
Team final standing prediction
# 4–291 points — Improvements to the car and a strong driver line up will have them close to the superior Aston Martin in the final standings
Daniel Ricciardo
This driver is one of F1’s best. An incredibly fast one for qualifying, while his speed and consistency in races, coupled with legendary overtakes, put him very near the top of the pile.
How will he fare in his first season in orange? Pretty well.
McLaren gets more power with their move back to Mercedes, the nose design which was planned for this year means more token spend on other key areas, while the clipping of downforce in the rules mean McLaren, which had less to lose, haven’t been affected as much as teams with more developed cars.
Ricciardo will have to bed into his new team and this will take some races. With limited testing and new things to get used to, expect him to not be his outright best when the season kicks off, at least not for the first 5–6 rounds. Once he’s got himself sorted proper, expect him to regularly get to top six positions and better.
Driver final standing prediction
# 8–140 points
Lando Norris
The strong pairing of Norris/Sainz has been broken. How will Norris go with his new stable mate from down under?
The advantage lies with the younger driver to start with. British team, established driver, knows the team, and is familiar with his surroundings. He’s incredibly quick in qualifying and is arguably top six on the grid in outright pace.
In races, he’s not quite as good, with more inconsistency. Expect that to minimise as he matures; he’s already showing a less jokey attitude and more serious take on racing.
With the moral boost of a maiden podium last year, and such a tough new teammate to spur Norris to another performance level, the promise of his glittering junior career is at the start of being realised, helped in tandem with a team also on the up.
Driver final standing prediction
# 7–151 points
Predicted average qualifying gap for teammates across the year
0.075 in Norris’ favour
This is a hard one.
Ricciardo has shown incredible pace against Vettel, Verstappen, Hulkenberg, and most lately, Esteban Ocon. Norris has also shown just how very quick he is. Owing to Norris being at the team first, and his outright potential, a close prediction in the Briton’s advantage is given.
Aston Martin
With Lawrence Stroll’s big money backing, the small team have finally got the resources to go for bigger prizes up the grid. Tasked with helping them is newly signed Sebastian Vettel, who will aim to re-find his best form last seen a few seasons ago.
Although the car has had limited testing and has suffered reliability problems, there is plenty of scope for the team to bounce back. The ever reliable power unit, the copy car concept from 2019 enhanced further for this year, while the rear suspension design of last year’s Mercedes gets incorporated into this year’s Aston Martin, too.
They might take a little time to hit full speed, but once they do, they should slot in comfortably behind the leading two teams. Vettel could give the regular front runners some headaches in qualifying in the 2nd half of the season.
Team final standing prediction
# 3–300 points — A strong car, which once fully optimised, will be the 3rd best on the grid.
Lance Stroll
Another young driver in the sport, how will he go this year?
The measure of his recent progress has left for Red Bull, replaced by a multiple champion, which will make this year’s assessment of Stroll under stable regulations a lot more tricky.
The car hasn’t gone very far in testing. Beset with issues curtailing their amount of running, this hasn’t given a favourable forecast for the year ahead. Added to the fact that McLaren, as their potential nearest competitor, look strong out the box, a pessimistic outlook is imaginable.
But going deeper, testing issues aside, things look more favourable. The team has a greater understanding of the car which was a copy of Mercedes’ 2019 challenger. There is the addition of the suspension component that their engine supplying team used last year. There was some bad luck for their drivers last season, so expect this to even out this year and give more scope for their true level to be displayed.
If Stroll keeps focussed, performance will come. He was getting quite close to Perez in races last year, so expect better again this year. With performance of the car being unlocked after initial troubles, the Canadian can be a threat for a few podiums this time around.
Driver final standing prediction
# 9–129 points
Sebastian Vettel
The troubled former world champion arrives at a new team. His fifth, and surely last move, how will he get on?
He still has the speed, no question. Flashes of it were still on display last season. When the car suited him, he was right with super fast Charles Leclerc. The question will be if Aston Martin can provide the balance Vettel requires again.
I’m going to say yes, they can, at least for 2021. The Mercedes carry across rear suspension will be pivotal in giving him the platform he requires for getting the maximum speed from the car.
It won’t show right away. New team to adjust to, the rear downforce changes will hamper him a bit, but with car developments coming through fast, and finally some clear track time, expect Vettel to come on quickly through the season and appear near the front, especially in qualifying.
His exceptionally hard working attitude will see him come to grips with the initial problems, and despite a dire initial outlook, Vettel can return to levels not seen since 2017.
But let’s not ignore flashpoints with prior teammates.
Most notable while paired with Webber at Red Bull & Leclerc at Ferrari, when the German suffered avoidable on track collisions with both. Ricciardo & Raikkonen judged their encounters better; the most controversial part of their inter team relationships with Vettel was the use of team orders.
Stroll is an interesting one. If Vettel struggles, an improved Stroll will be a match for the man from Heppenheim. With an improved car, the former Ferrari star will show his true pace and leave the Canadian in the dust.
Either way, Vettel will want to avoid any conflict with the team owner’s son.
Driver final standing prediction
# 5–171 points
Predicted qualifying gap for teammates across the year
0.100 in favour of Vettel
It could be quite close initially between the ex Ferrari man and comfortably seated Canadian. This prediction is for car improvements and personal dedication of Vettel to unlock his top ability as the season progresses.
Ferrari
Coming out of a horrible 2020 season, Ferrari aim to bounce back with a significantly revised car. Changes at the back of the car and to the rear suspension, with a new engine ready to run at full speed after a season being restricted last time.
Given the changes, it might take a bit of time for the red cars to run optimally, and once they’ve hit their stride, they could sit comfortably with McLaren towards the head of the midfield.
Team final standing prediction
# 5–284 points — Significant Improvements to the car won’t quite be enough to overhaul the Mercedes powered rivals of Aston Martin and McLaren.
Charles Leclerc
One of the three kings of F1 today. He may be uncrowned, but his sensational speed and race craft, coupled with the ability to drag performance out of poor cars that most others can’t, puts him in the bracket of the sport’s very elite, along with Hamilton and Verstappen.
Unfortunately for the Ferrari man, this season will be another in which good results will be hard to come by. Changes to the car and an upgraded, uncensored engine, will mean a significantly better season than last time out, but the difference between the very top teams and the Italian outfit will be much too great to bridge in such little time.
What can be expected is a return to fight for podiums. These will be ordinarily locked out by the superior cars of Mercedes, Red Bull and as the season progresses, Aston Martin. There will be occasions where those teams stumble, and when they do, Leclerc will spearhead the Ferrari challenge and pick up anything that’s left.
When the season starts, McLaren will be quicker out the box, while Aston Martin may take time to to get going. This will leave the scarlet cars, and particularly Leclerc, to fight at the head of the midfield pack, using his genius and extraordinary skill to come out on top more often than not.
Driver final standing prediction
# 6–158 points
Carlos Sainz junior
It could be a tough year for the Spaniard.
Just as McLaren has built a solid foundation and is getting into a routine of annual improvements, he leaves to join a Ferrari team, who last year, where in complete disarray.
Don’t rule him out though.
He won’t be able to match Leclerc in qualifying pace, and that isn’t to be expected. What is anticipated is that he replaces the flawed — and somewhat burnt out — four time champion Vettel, with more mature Sunday drives. Sainz’s variety of skills have been signed to bring home a good set of points in addition to what the lead car gets.
There will be times when Sainz’s skills puts him ahead on race day, but don’t expect him to stay there for long. Leclerc’s speed will come through and deliver the stronger results. While his teammate is truly settled, Sainz will need time to get accustomed to the team, so the first number of races will require all his talent to keep in touch.
Once he’s established in the Maranello team later in the year, we’ll see something of a Sainz revival. He’ll be maxing out his qualifyings and will settle into strong displays come the race. This will be of incredible importance heading into the rule reset of 2022.
Driver final standing prediction
# 10–126 points
Predicted qualifying gap for teammates across the year
0.175 advantage to Leclerc
Charles Leclerc stunning pace and being now the established driver in the team give him a clear edge going into the season.
Carlos Sainz will be somewhat adrift to begin with, then once settled, will reduce, but won’t eradicate, the deficit. He might finish ahead of his star teammate from time to time, but this season is a grounding for the regulation change of 2022.
Alpine
The team may be rebranded but the weaknesses remain. Their budget smaller than top spending rivals, and although that issue will diminish under new rules, it’s still a problem for now. Their engine isn’t the most powerful and they don’t have the most technically advanced car, while they head into the 3rd season using the same chassis.
Double world champion Fernando Alonso returns. Hungry for success, expect him to take a number of races to hit his stride.
Ocon will be quick in the midfield, but the car will be a limiting factor for both drivers.
Team final standing prediction
# 7–107 points — A strange car design, and Renault losing to rivals’ gain, will see the team slip back this year.
Fernando Alonso
Fernando is back.
It’s funny to think, but the car he’s going to be returning to won’t be far off the level he had when he left after 2018. If he scores 50 points again, it won’t be a surprise.
What can he offer?
After time away from the F1 cockpit for a couple of seasons, it will take some time to get back up to speed. Luckily, he steps into the same formula as when he left; V6 engines and the same basic aerodynamic set up which came into effect from 2017.
He’s also been busy racing sports cars — notably to two Le Mans victories — and had a couple of unsuccessful Indy Car shots between leaving F1 and making his return. There was also a strong Dakar showing in 2020.
So he’s not completely rusty. Which is a good thing, with the metal in his jaw.
Never the outright quickest, never the fastest in wet conditions, never the best overtaker, never the best on tyre management, never…
It doesn’t sound very positive.
Despite being slightly lower than a select few in individual aspects, Alonso is very, very good at everything. His adaptability is incredible, not only for different types of vehicle, but for how he handles a range of characteristics in single seaters. From understeering cars, like the 2005 Renault, or ’14 Ferrari, to the much more nimble MP4–22 McLaren of 2007, he’s been a championship contender or teammate destroyer, on all track conditions.
For his comeback, age won’t be too much of an issue, at least while the fire is still burning. His pace on the limit has perhaps diminished fractionally, as will be expected with the hands of time, but not enough to be evident, not when experience and pace management counts in races.
Once he’s up to speed, it will only be qualifying shots were the younger drivers will cause problems.
Driver final standing prediction
# 13–48 points
Esteban Ocon
This is the year the Frenchman can really prove himself.
For a while, he was touted as one of the next big things. He’s been surpassed by others since, and after being passed up for the 2nd Mercedes seat, it seemed his chances might be out the window.
Now he gets the chance to outperform a double world champion, three time runner up, heavyweight of a driver. Doing so will be a significant boost to his moral and reputation.
Coming back from a year in a Mercedes reserve role, his 2020 was initially underwhelming. He stuck at it, and despite the strong presence of Daniel Ricciardo in the sister car, Ocon finally came good, albeit the season had by then reached its climax.
The challenge for ’21 is simple then. Maintain the same pace and consistency that was achieved at the end of last season, and build on it with further improvements to get more performance from the car than previously.
Coming out the blocks well important. If he puts Alonso in the shade while the Spaniard is getting back up to speed, he could put himself out of reach of his teammate in the standings this year. That would be useful for the mind in heading towards the new regulations of ‘22.
Driver final standing prediction
# 11–59 points
Predicted qualifying gap for teammates across the year
0.100 in Ocon’s favour
Quite a struggle. Ocon’s one of the quicker guys in F1, if a little way off the outright pace. Alonso was a tiny percentage from the top too, while coming in after a couple of seasons off means the initial advantage is with the Frenchman.
Despite this, he should be wary of his older teamamte in races, were experience and skill will draw the two closer together.
AlphaTauri
The team’s looked solid in testing. Of course, it wasn’t the proper thing. When real competition starts again, they’ll fall into their true position; somewhere mid grid.
A new Honda power unit and improvements to an already decent car mean plenty more finishes in the fringes of the top ten and plenty of points on offer for both drivers this season.
Gasly will lead the team again, while he’s joined by new recruit, Yuki Tsunoda.
Team final standing prediction
# 6–130 points — Improved Honda power and the assured performances of their team leader will help them to a strong midfield position.
Pierre Gasly
Pierre Gasly recently turned 25. This is the age most time drivers hit their best form.
Before this, he’s had some ups and downs in his racing life, but it’s been mostly good news.
Impressive results and competitive in lower categories with contemporaries Giovinazzi and Sainz junior. Gasly’s one off seasons in Formula 3.5 and Super formula brought 2nd places, while a strong stand in drive for Buemi, for one weekend of the 16–17 Formula E season, nearly saw him bag a podium.
Strong performances in Torro Rosso got him promotion to Red Bull for 2019. It was short lived. Destroyed by Max Verstappen, he was sent back to the B team at mid point in the calendar.
He’s come back fighting, beating Lewis Hamilton in a drag race to the line in Brazil ’19, while the Frenchman claimed an unexpected and hugely satisfying win in Monza 2020.
His past — apart from the Red Bull stint — show his speed is undeniable. With a rookie teammate alongside him this campaign, and improvements to the Honda power unit, the French driver can once more show his qualities and continue to re-build his career.
In the week before the season starts, media stories have surfaced in which he claims he didn’t have the tools to fight at Red Bull. Speaking out against those who pay your wage is never a wise strategy, especially in F1, and with such talent and hand, with a still precarious team position, hopefully this doesn’t set him back.
Driver final standing prediction
# 12–81 points
Yuki Tsunonda
The first F1 driver in history to be born after the turn of the century. His year will likely have flashes of pace, crashes, inconsistency. To keep out of trouble, give Gasly something to think about and don’t cause problems for Max Verstappen.
For the rookie, there’ll be a deficit to his teammate, who in the right car, is incredibly quick and able to bring home results. For a first season, this is going to be a stiff test for Tsunoda, and one which gives Red Bull management a great yard stick to assess the true abilities of their hot young prospect.
This means the pressure’s now on.
Championships haven’t been expected since leaving Japan, only significant progress and consistent developments. This continues at AlphaTauri where he’ll be expected to show he is still growing (as a driver).
He’ll have to show his outright best, even in parts, because after the withdrawal of Honda, there’ll be less internal support should things go wrong. If he delivers, another year at the team will be a given, were more progress will be demanded.
Driver final standing prediction
# 14–49 points
Predicted qualifying gap for teammates across the year
0.225 advantage to Gasly
Expect Tsunoda to whittle down the advantage as he becomes more comfortable over the season. Both drivers have the equipment to produce strong results, helped by Honda’s upgraded power plant.
Alfa Romeo
Last year was constrained by problems with the Ferrari power unit. That in itself means this season will already be off to a better footing. Car upgrades will help push them a little closer to the back of the midfield, where they’ll hope to cause problems for any teams whose progress has stagnated.
Having hung on to his race seat for the last couple of years, this season gives the chance for Giovinazzi to show he is worthy of a place in the paddock.
Raikkonen will be expected to bring home points again when possible. His flagging motivation may finally be the final nail in the coffin though, twenty years after he made his initial appearance for the Sauber F1 team.
Team final standing prediction
# 9–8 points — improved power won’t be enough against an improved Williams team with a lead driver determined to keep on rising. A tie on points with the Grove based squad, but ahead on countback.
Kimi Raikkonen
Now topping the list for most race starts, Raikkonen has quite recently admitted he’s closer to the end of his career than the beginning. It’s fair to say that the use of crystal balls is more like a hobby to him.
Being closer to the rear of the field in a grid of youngsters must be a little off putting, especially for a driver who once won a title and twice finished runner up. Even his more recent and frustrating Ferrari seasons were a step up from his current predicament.
He’ll try and score some more points for the team while the car is capable, but don’t expect him to maintain his appetite for the season, which will surely, surely be his last.
Goodbye Kimi. Fans get the flags ready (if they haven’t been torn apart by moths since 2015). And if the worst comes to the worst, save them again for next year.
Driver final standing prediction
# 17–2 points
Antonio Giovinazzi
His last two seasons at the team have been precarious; outperformed by an older superstar in decline, while he has been making critical errors have nearly led to him being dropped. The very end of last season might have been the breakthrough this driver is looking for, as he sorely hopes to show his hidden potential, so far masked by weak cars and personal underperformance.
If he can get the edge on Raikkonen from the start this year, he should be able to bury his former champion teammate into retirement. In the process, Giovinazzi will go head to head with George Russell for the final points to be claimed in races when others stumble.
A strong performance lower down the field will be critical if he’s to have any chance of promotion to a stronger team. Although spaces are limited, if he can show the form he had in junior categories hasn’t deserted him, he may get another chance to change the minds of those that can offer him a drive further up the grid.
Driver final standing prediction
# 15–6 points
- .250 advantage to Giovinazzi
The gap will be smaller to start with, but as Raikkonen nears the end, it will steadily increase as the Finn (finally) loses motivation, prompting him to give the most Damon Hill ’99 like impression we’ve seen for many a year.
Privately, I keep predicting any new season will be Raikkonen’s last. Well, this time, it is the season. Giovinazzi will, for the first time, comprehensively outpace the Finn. Considering Giovinazzi is one off the lesser stars of the grid, such a situation will show Raikkonen’s time has finally come. The final couple of races of 2020 was the tipping point of their relative performance.
Haas
There are improvements to the power level owing to the all new Ferrari engine. There are also some updates to the cars’ aerodynamics, to configure it for the adjusted regulations while looking for some benefit on performance.
Apart from that, the team is set to be rooted to the back of the grid. This has been Williams’ position in recent years, and now it looks like it’s the turn of the American outfit. Attention is already focussed on 2022, which makes this year one of survival.
Both of last year’s drivers — Romain Grosjean and Kevin Magnussen — have been dropped, and an all rookie line up instead takes to the field. Enter Mick Schumacher and Nikita Mazepin.
Team final standing prediction
# 10–0 points — Bringing up the rear.
Mick Schumacher
The name Schumacher is known to F1 fans now, and will be for generations to come. It’s hard to believe that it was nine years ago when Michael Schumacher last raced an F1 car, in that season’s finale in Brazil.
Vettel was still winning titles…
Mick Schumacher now makes his step up to the top echelon. How will he do?
It will be a difficult first season. Schumacher is known for coming good in his second year in the lower categories, so making an initial impression will be hard for him. Worse is the fact that he joins a team at its lowest ebb.
Haas is still quite a recent addition to the sport, and has done reasonably well in its short time on the grid, but this year marks a transition. A slightly modified car, which already didn’t have much going for it, with no developments intended for this season; 2022 is the target.
A challenging entry to the sport for the young German. He’ll need to stick at it. Thankfully, he has a hard work ethic and is incredibly mature for his age. This will help. Oh, and he’s pretty quick off the line.
Driver final standing prediction
# 19–0 points
Nikita Mazepin
Beyond the noise his on and off track antics have brought, the man is a decent driver. There are those better than him, others worse, with the money he brings being highlighted by fans for him being prioritised over people with greater talent.
Not that that’s a first.
It will be interesting to see how he matches up against Mick Schumacher this year. Surely the German has the advantage, but on skill alone, Mazepin could make his teammate’s life challenging at times.
Don’t expect anything else than being stuck at the back of the grid. Although Mazepin does have some underlying skill, the car will be so far off the pace he’ll never get to show if he does belong in the top tier of single seaters.
Don’t be surprised if there’s any conflict with his also rookie teammate. With a car as minimally updated as the Haas is going to be this year, the only regular compeition he’ll have will be from the other side of the garage. He might get the chance to fight with a disinterested Raikkonen later in the campaign, or an off pace Nicolas Latifi.
-.125 in Schumacher’s favour
Schumacher hasn’t proved to be the quickest qualifier, while his prior junior seasons indicate a season, season and a half, to hit his stride. The German will likely start the year a little ahead of his teammate, then begin making progress as the year progresses.
Driver final standing prediction
# 20–0 points
Williams
An end to the long enduring family ownership at the mid point of last campaign has provided the team with new backing that will hopefully mean a forward step in performance for the upcoming season.
Mercedes power remains for the 8th consecutive season and provides solid foundations for progress. Changes to the aerodynamics and improvements to the car across the board have given indication of a small upturn in fortunes following the winter tests.
With young British hopeful George Russell bringing exceptional driving speed to the team’s lead car, a return to points scoring is on the Grove based team’s main agenda this time out.
Team final standing prediction
# 8–8 points — Changes to the car and strong speed from Russell will let him nibble at the final points on offer when they are available.
George Russell
The the most important year of Russell’s short F1 career to date. The deal maker, that if the car is good enough, will give him the platform to convince the heads of Mercedes, beyond any last doubt, that they have to sign him.
Having had a weekend to sample Mercedes’ car last year, Russell has gained further knowledge and understanding of how to operate best over a weekend. There will be little things he hasn’t seen at Williams, tips & tricks, suggestions, all of which he can incorporate into getting the most from each round of the coming the season.
The new car should provide a boost as well. For at least a couple of seasons, Williams has languished right near the back. Now with an incoming cost cap, and new owners to provide finance, a step in the right direction on the performance side will yield better results.
The most challenging aspect is that there are still many teams ahead, with few chances to score points. Thankfully, with a driver as quick as Russell on board, opportunities will fall his way across the season, and he is more than capable of picking up the scraps when superior teams get it wrong.
Driver final standing prediction
# 16–8 points
Nicholas Latifi
Another season of trying to get somewhere close to Russell, especially in qualifying. His race pace is possibly a little better in comparison to his highly rated teammate, which gives him something to start on.
If the Williams car is an improvement, and given what is happening at Haas, starting a couple of places further forward should be what he aims for as a minimum at every Grand Prix.
There are special situations in a season when points unexpectedly come on offer, for whatever series of events. Latifi will need something like this to happen so he can assist in scoring any of the minor points. He needs to get more out of himself and the car to be there for when these rare opportunities present themselves.
Driver final standing prediction
# 18–0 points
-.425 in Russell’s favour.
A slightly smaller gap than last time, as Russell can’t go much faster on Saturdays, while Latifi can’t go much slower. A change in thinking for the Brit — having had the Mercedes experience, albeit for only 1 round — will make him focus more for his Sundays.
